Sunday, October 2, 2011

Sacramento's Shadow Inventory

Monday's Sacramento Bee had an interesting article on the front page regarding the second wave of foreclosures to hit the Sacramento market.  Foreclosure filings in the Sacramento area increased 76% over July to 2,420.  This is the highest number 11 months.  A staggering 1 out of every 7 homes in the Sacramento area is currently somewhere in the foreclosure pipeline.  According to RealtyTrac, Sacramento's shadow market currently stands at 53,256.  This includes:
  • 12,285 homes already owned by banks but not on the market; 
  • 19,367 homes with a notice of default but not foreclosed upon; and 
  • 21,604 borrowers who are 90 days or more behind but not served with a foreclosure notice. 
To put that into perspective, at the end of August, in Sacramento County there were 4,073 homes currently listed as for sale, and during August 1,645 homes were sold in the County.  That puts the total inventory of shadow homes at 2.7 years worth of inventory.  Many of these homes won't ultimately go to foreclosure; for many, the lender will approve a short sale.  But that doesn't erase the fact that they will have to enter the market and be sold. 

What does all this mean to the average homeowner?  The market is going to continue to be flooded with short sells and REO properties keeping prices down.  Great if you're an investor, not so great if you're a homeowner.  Also, not so great for the economy in general as the real estate market is seen by many as a major catalyst for helping the economy get back on track. 

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